As the drama continues, and we enter another crucial period of intense debate, I start to speculate on the long term damage that is being inflicted on the British psyche.
The current prime minister (Boris Johnson) has secured a New Deal from the EU and is about to present it to the House of Commons for approval. It has come down to My deal, or No Deal again – this tactic cost the last prime minister (Theresa May) her job.
The current calculus of the House is so tight that few are willing to call the vote – and the vote will, no doubt, be complicated by amendments. The government has lost its majority and will need to overcome this disadvantage. The DUP are not willing to back a Deal that threatens their hold over Northern Irish politics, the PLP are worried that whatever position they take they will loose seats to the Lib Dems, the Brexit party has no seat in Westminster but remain a factor in Tory thinking, and the SNP seem unwilling to back a Deal that appears ruinous to the Scottish economy (an economy that gets no mention in the new document). Many of the Independents are still sulking after having the Tory whip withdrawn, and the government (the Conservatives) are being driven into a hard right Deal or No Deal binary that is difficult for some of them – except for a few hard-line Brexiteers.
There is talk of a General Election – the government want it soon (while they can still claim the high ground of giving the people what they want – even though no one knows quite what that is). However, they know that if they fail to deliver then the Brexit party will pick them off in Leave constituencies. The Labour party fear an election will wipe them out – not only do they worry that they can’t win an election just now, but they feel their position as the second force in UK politics is threatened by a drift to the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems have positioned themselves as the Remain option – in binary opposite to the Tory Leave position – whilst Labour are floating (indecisively in some peoples view) between Leave seats and Remain seats and can’t risk tipping one way or the other. The SNP would welcome an election because they feel they can reduce the number of Tories in Scotland, forcing them to hold their meetings in the back seat of someone’s Mini, whilst increasing the chance of a second Independence Referendum.
But … in amongst all this posturing … we have failed to address some fundamental questions: how do we reconcile the tension between those that want a direct democracy verses those who vote for a representative democracy? how do we overcome the stasis created by a divide country, where major issues split the country approximatly50/50? how do we put the angry genie back in the bottle as these issues release strong forces that manifest their anger in racist behaviour/frustration at environmentalists/voter fatigue?
Phew, it is enough to keep teams of geeky political editors spinning in their newsrooms.
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